Today’s primary results were an emphatic embarrassment to John McCain and a strong hint of his problems ahead. Despite being acknowledged by the American and foreign media as the inevitable Republican candidate, and despite the Republican Party establishment’s call for all of the party faithful to coalesce around John McCain, voters today in three states said “Not so fast, John.”

In Kansas, voters not only said no to John McCain, they said hell no, choosing Huckabee over McCain by 3-to-1 (60% to 23%). In Louisiana, it was a close 43%-to-42% victory by Huckabee over McCain, with neither candidate winning the 50% needed to have the delegates pledged (Mitt Romney, who has suspended his campaign, captured 6% while Ron Paul captured 5%). In the state of Washington, which McCain was favored to win, he scored his only victory of the day, beating Mike Huckabee 26% to 24%, with Ron Paul taking 21% and Mitt Romney taking 17%. Talk about a meager victory, McCain didn’t even beat Governor Romney by 10%, even after Romney argued at CPAC that the national interest requires that Republicans step aside now and give McCain a clear path to victory in November.

McCain’s prospects with his own base are so clouded that everyone I’ve heard on the subject thinks that his choice of a Vice-Presidential running mate is strategically important -- not just a question of balancing the ticket or appealing to the voters of a particular state or region he needs, but a question of his fundamental viability in November. McCain is too proud to pick anyone who disagrees with him on any big issue (ergo rule out Romney), so he is in danger of picking someone who, like himself, is no more than vaguely conservative. A running mate of that sort may prove inoffensive, but the choice won’t do much to bring the base into line. On the other hand, if McCain is of a mind to select Huckabee, that will buy him a chunk of the Evangelicals (not all, by any means), while allowing his opponents and their media friends to characterize him as having sold his soul to the nutty right-wing fringe (by which they mean anyone with Christian convictions).

This is not an ordinary Republican-versus-Democrat election year, and McCain’s problems with his base are much bigger than many are supposing. On the radio last night (KABC in Los Angeles), I listened to caller after caller come forth to say that he or she will not vote for McCain in the fall -- no how, no way. A few were a little more moderate, saying that they don’t plan to vote for him but will see how things evolve, perhaps two callers said they would vote for McCain with reservations or regret, and none said they were McCain enthusiasts. Can any Republican hope to win the national election with this starting hand? It would be easier to believe that McCain is headed for a crushing defeat than to believe he is on the path to victory.

Here’s the way I see the numbers. I start with the assumption that voters nationally are philosophically split 40% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 20% other (independent, undecided, persuadable, confused, uninterested, busy chasing after aliens from outer space or looking for Elvis, etc. ). As a thought experiment, here’s how we might see the philosophical division playing out this election year:

·         With Democrat voters hungry for a return to the White House and repeatedly told that this year is their best shot in a long time, I don’t see more than a few percentage points, say 2% of the Democrats, defecting to McCain. On the other hand, there could be twice that number of Republicans (4%) voting for the opposition -- perhaps women voting for Senator Clinton or African-Americans voting for Senator Obama, or a few like Ann Coulter who believe that conservatives would have a better outcome with Hillary facing angry conservatives in Congress than they would with a President McCain cajoling or silencing many of the conservatives in his own party. 

·         I’m thinking that a third to half of the Ron Paul enthusiasts will write his (Ron Paul’s) name in for President in November no matter what; let’s call that 2% of the Republican base to avoid overstatement. 

·         Today’s result in the three states and the calls I heard on the radio suggest to me that if the election were held tomorrow, McCain would be competing without another 10-15% of the Republican base – the fervent rejectionists who have no intention of voting for McCain under any circumstances. Some of the angry rejectionists will eventually return to the fold after listening to Clinton or Obama spouting surrender and socialism for three months, and some will give in to the pressure from all their “leaders” telling them that no patriot can sit out this election, etc. I foresee a tough 7% of the base, at least, who will hold out in November.

When I add all that up, I see McCain with 2% of his base writing in Ron Paul, 7% of his base not voting for President, and 2% more Republicans voting for the Democrat than vice versa, leaving him a net .89 of the 40% base, meaning a diminished 36% base instead of the whole 40% base. That would leave McCain needing to win more than 14% from the 20% pool of independents, or, in other words, he would need to win over 7 out of 10 of them. The anger in this country toward President Bush and the Iraq war -- the very sentiment that drives the passion for “change” -- will ensure that the pro-Iraq-war candidate McCain cannot pull in 7 out of 10 independents.

The American Presidential election is settled by the Electoral College and not the popular vote. Translating the ideas above to the state-by-state vote, what I am predicting is that McCain will not win any (or at most one) of the usual blue states over to the Republican side while he will lose several or perhaps many of the red states to the Democrat. In other words, he loses respectably or he loses big, but he doesn’t win.

What can change that? I don’t think that McCain’s Vice-Presidential choice will change things dramatically, because there isn’t any likely choice of his that gets him a big boost without an offsetting loss in other voter segments. What could change McCain’s fate is a Democrat implosion. Here are some possible scenarios:

·         Barak comes to the convention with the most delegates and the momentum, but Hillary out-maneuvers him by rounding up a large majority of the super delegates (party insiders) to offset his advantage among popularly-chosen delegates, and then by forcing the inclusion of the Florida and Michigan delegates (once that fight is launched by Hillary’s people, it would be suicidal for the other delegates to resist and thereby anger the voters of two big states they need in the fall). As a result, the Obama supporters (most notably African Americans, college kids, the Hollywood elite, and miscellaneous Clinton-haters from the past) stay home in droves because they are infuriated at the undemocratic nature of the selection. 

·         Barak wins the nomination, doesn’t choose Richardson as his running mate, and discovers too late that many Hispanics in the Democrat base harbor deep suspicion of African Americans, and discovers moreover that there are covert racists still alive and active among other registered Democrats and independents.

I’m not saying that these scenarios are likely, but I am saying that the kind of miracle McCain needs is more likely to come from self-destruction among the Democrats than from any brilliant maneuver McCain is going to pull off between now and November.

    Craig, on Sunday morning, 2/10/2008