Today’s primary results were an emphatic embarrassment to John McCain and a strong hint of his problems ahead. Despite being acknowledged by the American and foreign media as the inevitable Republican candidate, and despite the Republican Party establishment’s call for all of the party faithful to coalesce around John McCain, voters today in three states said “Not so fast, John.”

In Kansas, voters not only said no to John McCain, they said hell no, choosing Huckabee over McCain by 3-to-1 (60% to 23%). In Louisiana, it was a close 43%-to-42% victory by Huckabee over McCain, with neither candidate winning the 50% needed to have the delegates pledged (Mitt Romney, who has suspended his campaign, captured 6% while Ron Paul captured 5%). In the state of Washington, which McCain was favored to win, he scored his only victory of the day, beating Mike Huckabee 26% to 24%, with Ron Paul taking 21% and Mitt Romney taking 17%. Talk about a meager victory, McCain didn’t even beat Governor Romney by 10%, even after Romney argued at CPAC that the national interest requires that Republicans step aside now and give McCain a clear path to victory in November.

McCain’s prospects with his own base are so clouded that everyone I’ve heard on the subject thinks that his choice of a Vice-Presidential running mate is strategically important -- not just a question of balancing the ticket or appealing to the voters of a particular state or region he needs, but a question of his fundamental viability in November. McCain is too proud to pick anyone who disagrees with him on any big issue (ergo rule out Romney), so he is in danger of picking someone who, like himself, is no more than vaguely conservative. A running mate of that sort may prove inoffensive, but the choice won’t do much to bring the base into line. On the other hand, if McCain is of a mind to select Huckabee, that will buy him a chunk of the Evangelicals (not all, by any means), while allowing his opponents and their media friends to characterize him as having sold his soul to the nutty right-wing fringe (by which they mean anyone with Christian convictions).

This is not an ordinary Republican-versus-Democrat election year, and McCain’s problems with his base are much bigger than many are supposing. On the radio last night (KABC in Los Angeles), I listened to caller after caller come forth to say that he or she will not vote for McCain in the fall -- no how, no way. A few were a little more moderate, saying that they don’t plan to vote for him but will see how things evolve, perhaps two callers said they would vote for McCain with reservations or regret, and none said they were McCain enthusiasts. Can any Republican hope to win the national election with this starting hand? It would be easier to believe that McCain is headed for a crushing defeat than to believe he is on the path to victory.

Here’s the way I see the numbers. I start with the assumption that voters nationally are philosophically split 40% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 20% other (independent, undecided, persuadable, confused, uninterested, busy chasing after aliens from outer space or looking for Elvis, etc. ). As a thought experiment, here’s how we might see the philosophical division playing out this election year:

·         With Democrat voters hungry for a return to the White House and repeatedly told that this year is their best shot in a long time, I don’t see more than a few percentage points, say 2% of the Democrats, defecting to McCain. On the other hand, there could be twice that number of Republicans (4%) voting for the opposition -- perhaps women voting for Senator Clinton or African-Americans voting for Senator Obama, or a few like Ann Coulter who believe that conservatives would have a better outcome with Hillary facing angry conservatives in Congress than they would with a President McCain cajoling or silencing many of the conservatives in his own party. 

·         I’m thinking that a third to half of the Ron Paul enthusiasts will write his (Ron Paul’s) name in for President in November no matter what; let’s call that 2% of the Republican base to avoid overstatement. 

·         Today’s result in the three states and the calls I heard on the radio suggest to me that if the election were held tomorrow, McCain would be competing without another 10-15% of the Republican base – the fervent rejectionists who have no intention of voting for McCain under any circumstances. Some of the angry rejectionists will eventually return to the fold after listening to Clinton or Obama spouting surrender and socialism for three months, and some will give in to the pressure from all their “leaders” telling them that no patriot can sit out this election, etc. I foresee a tough 7% of the base, at least, who will hold out in November.

When I add all that up, I see McCain with 2% of his base writing in Ron Paul, 7% of his base not voting for President, and 2% more Republicans voting for the Democrat than vice versa, leaving him a net .89 of the 40% base, meaning a diminished 36% base instead of the whole 40% base. That would leave McCain needing to win more than 14% from the 20% pool of independents, or, in other words, he would need to win over 7 out of 10 of them. The anger in this country toward President Bush and the Iraq war -- the very sentiment that drives the passion for “change” -- will ensure that the pro-Iraq-war candidate McCain cannot pull in 7 out of 10 independents.

The American Presidential election is settled by the Electoral College and not the popular vote. Translating the ideas above to the state-by-state vote, what I am predicting is that McCain will not win any (or at most one) of the usual blue states over to the Republican side while he will lose several or perhaps many of the red states to the Democrat. In other words, he loses respectably or he loses big, but he doesn’t win.

What can change that? I don’t think that McCain’s Vice-Presidential choice will change things dramatically, because there isn’t any likely choice of his that gets him a big boost without an offsetting loss in other voter segments. What could change McCain’s fate is a Democrat implosion. Here are some possible scenarios:

·         Barak comes to the convention with the most delegates and the momentum, but Hillary out-maneuvers him by rounding up a large majority of the super delegates (party insiders) to offset his advantage among popularly-chosen delegates, and then by forcing the inclusion of the Florida and Michigan delegates (once that fight is launched by Hillary’s people, it would be suicidal for the other delegates to resist and thereby anger the voters of two big states they need in the fall). As a result, the Obama supporters (most notably African Americans, college kids, the Hollywood elite, and miscellaneous Clinton-haters from the past) stay home in droves because they are infuriated at the undemocratic nature of the selection. 

·         Barak wins the nomination, doesn’t choose Richardson as his running mate, and discovers too late that many Hispanics in the Democrat base harbor deep suspicion of African Americans, and discovers moreover that there are covert racists still alive and active among other registered Democrats and independents.

I’m not saying that these scenarios are likely, but I am saying that the kind of miracle McCain needs is more likely to come from self-destruction among the Democrats than from any brilliant maneuver McCain is going to pull off between now and November.

    Craig, on Sunday morning, 2/10/2008

We hardly knew Mitt Romney  when the election cycle started, and it took time for conservatives to figure out his positions and his message, decide how well he could communicate his message, whether he had a chance in a very crowded Republican field, and whether he would have a chance against the Bill and Hillary machine, which specializes in defaming and destroying its adversaries (or possibly against Barak Obama, the newest darling of the left, with a meager track record, little baggage, and few antagonists -- relatively clueless but effusively hopeful).

Gradually we realized that Mitt Romney was a serious candidate espousing traditional conservative positions. But then we were quickly told and reminded (and reminded again) that on several key positions, his conservative alignment had come about only in the past few years. So we as voters had to decide if he was conservative at his core with a more nuanced exterior when he campaigned in Massachusetts, or if he had gradually come over to the conservative cause as his political soul matured, or if he was just saying whatever he thought he needed to say to get nominated, as his opponents were claiming.

As I wrote previously, when a friend who knows Mitt Romney told me that Mitt was going to run for President, I was skeptical. In retrospect, my gut reaction was correct; the American people are slow to embrace a candidate for the highest office in the nation (and implicitly the leader of the free world) who comes to them as a fresh face with an unfamiliar political history. They much more comfortable with a candidate they believe they know through and through -- right and wrong positions, scandals, deceptions, bad temper, foibles, and all. This is not a poor instinct on the part of the people – it is a conservative instinct with a sound rationale. I think that the Romney folks supposed that they could quickly win over the people on the strength of the Governor’s experience, positions, temperament, and vision; that works eventually, but it doesn’t happen in the time frame of an election cycle.

There are many miscalculations in a political campaign, but I suspect that Mitt and his advisers had no clue how widespread and virulent the anti-Mormon sentiment in this country has become. Racists have been put to shame, those who believe that men and women are different have been taught to keep their opinions to themselves, and all of us have been lectured by the news media, universities, and the President himself that we must not see Islam as a more primitive or dangerous religion just because its more fervent adherents are blowing up “infidels” all around the globe every day of the year. Who would have supposed that in our most tolerant and politically correct society there would be a place for “safe” religious bigotry – accepted and encouraged by the media, never denounced at your local university, never a topic in the sensitivity training from your H.R. department.

For many of us, the more we listened, the more convinced we became that Governor Romney was the one candidate with prospects of leading the country forward against its current and future challenges, whereas most of the candidate are more comfortable dwelling, ranting, and fighting over the arguments of the past. Put simply, one must decide if the future of the nation hinges on defeating Islamic jihad and competing economically with China and India, or if it hinges on who cast the right vote and first advocated the right military strategy in Iraq and who can better fight Congressional earmarks and a bridge to nowhere. If your focus is on past votes and the bridge, you really are a captive of the mainstream media and the Washington insiders.

Those who know Governor Romney best were his first and most ardent supporters (when it comes to our politicians, that’s not a given – think Clinton, McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani). Conservatives who pay close attention came along next. Many conservatives who have other priorities in life and a just-in-time approach to politics came around to Governor Romney just a little too late.

I understand the enthusiasm of the Fred Thompson supporters for a homespun natural conservative not consumed with his own ambition, I understand the enthusiasm of the Rudy supporters for a tough-minded defender of law and order and American survival, and I understand the enthusiasm of military, ex-military, and any other patriot for John McCain – the hero of heroes in a war effort that was mocked by the elite. I have more problems with the Huckabee supporters who love their candidate because he is one of their own (i.e. an Evangelical) and reaches out to them with the soothing language, accent, cadence, story-telling, and humor that sound most authentic in their corner of America -- never mind Huckabee’s self-serving, unprincipled, and corrupt record as Governor and never mind his Arkansas-style smile-and-slash politics that he shares with the Clintons. As for those voters who found any and every excuse to support any candidate but Mitt – any candidate but one of those horrible Mormons – those who filled the comment sections of the blogs with their hatred -- the loss is theirs and ours and the country’s.

I commend to you the text of Governor Romney’s address to CPAC which you can find at:

                http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/CPAC_Address

Highlights of his remarks:

"As I said to you last year, conservative principles are needed now more than ever. We face a new generation of challenges, challenges which threaten our prosperity, our security and our future. I am convinced that unless America changes course, we will become the France of the 21st century – still a great nation, but no longer the leader of the world, no longer the superpower. And to me, that is unthinkable.”

“If we learn anything from the history of economic development, it is that culture makes all the difference .” (from Harvard Professor Emeritus David Landes)

“We sacrifice everything we have, even our lives, for our families, our freedoms and our country. The values and beliefs of the free American people are the source of our nation's strength and they always will be. “

“The liberals haven't given up. At every turn, they try to substitute government largesse for individual responsibility. ... Dependency is death to initiative, risk-taking, and opportunity. Dependency is a culture-killing drug. We have got to fight it like the poison it is.”

“A nation built on the principles of the Founding Fathers cannot long stand when its children are raised without fathers in the home.”

"Europe is facing a demographic disaster. That is the inevitable product of weakened faith in the Creator, failed families, disrespect for the sanctity of human life, and eroded morality. Some reason that culture is merely an accessory to America's vitality; we know that it is the source of our strength. And we are not dissuaded by the snickers and knowing glances when we stand up for family values, and morality, and culture. We will always be honored to stand on principle and to stand for principle.”

"Most politicians don't seem to understand the connection between our ability to compete and our national wealth, and the wealth of our families. They act as if money just happens – that it's just there. But every dollar represents a good or service produced in the private sector. Depress the private sector and you depress the well-being of Americans.”

"It is the common task of each generation – and the burden of liberty – to preserve this country, expand its freedoms, and renew its spirit so that its noble past is prologue to its glorious future.
To this task, accepting this burden, we are all dedicated, and I firmly believe, by the providence of the Almighty, that we will succeed beyond our fondest hope. America must remain, as it has always been, the hope of the Earth.”

"Thank you, and God bless America."

Craig

This wasn’t supposed to happen.

John McCain’s supporters in the mainstream media and his fellow Republicans in-name-only, including our own Manchurian Candidate in the Governor’s mansion, were doing everything possible to demoralize Romney supporters and have them give up in despair and rally round the Washington-anointed McCain.

But we awoke this morning to a new Zogby poll that shows Romney leading the California Republican field 40-to-32-to-12 (the 12% is Huckabee). Where is the Romney surge coming from? I don’t think it’s those robotic calling machines, because I’ve gotten more pro-McCain calls than pro-Romney calls. I think it has to be more conservatives tuning in to their real choices, and realizing that the anointed candidate is a not-so-sure Republican who  hates conservatives but has great respect for Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, hates political free speech, loves illegal aliens, voted against tax cuts, and thinks we need very big new taxes on American’s use of energy (meaning vehicle fuel, airline fuel, home heating fuel, and industrial fuel) while China gets a free pass.

The New York Time reported June 11, 2006 that “The increase in global-warming gases from China's coal use will probably exceed that for all industrialized countries combined over the next 25 years, surpassing by five times the reduction in such emissions that the Kyoto Protocol seeks.” For Senator McCain, who started as a conservative but by now has been in Washington far too long, this provides a great opportunity for a huge new tax on Americans -- go figure. You have to be a Washington insider to think that way.

This blog is at its very inception, and there is much more to come, including the following topics:

            John McCain: A Disaster In The Making

            Why McCain Is NOT My Friend

            My Pledge and How It Affects My Vote this November

This is a grass roots effort; there is no funding or sponsor for this effort. If you have suggestions, or if you want to help, write to StillConservative@gmail.com.
 

When a friend who knows Mitt Romney told me that Mitt was going to run for President, I was skeptical. I remembered his role in the 2002 Olympics and I remembered that he had been Governor of Massachusetts -- there was always a bit of satisfaction for me in knowing that a Republican had gotten himself elected Governor of the state Ted Kennedy and family presume to own. I just didn’t see that those two accomplishments were enough to get him elected President of the United States.

What’s changed for me since then is that I’ve learned more about Mitt Romney’s biography -- particularly his years in business development before the Olympics, I’ve listened to him speak, I’ve explored his web site, I’ve come to know more about his family, I’ve become familiar with his positions on the big issues, and I’ve observed his demeanor with family, friends, and supporters, his demeanor when challenged, his demeanor in election victory and defeat.

I’ve also observed the way others react to him, and from what I see and read the more people know Mitt, the better they like him. They find him likeable, intelligent, sincere, professional, and very knowledgeable about all the issues of importance to this country. Almost everyone who has observed him through the several debates has noticed that he has the steadiness and demeanor we would be proud of in a President of the United States.

If you are a Democrat, or if for any reason you believe that Senator Clinton or Senator Obama is just what this country needs right now, I’m surprised you’ve kept reading past my opening proposition to the effect that the majority of the American people are conservative, not to mention my remark that the Democrat candidate will be coming to the American people with a basket of foolish ideas. Perhaps I was too diplomatic.

If you are a Mike Huckabee supporter, I will mention that I was with two representatives of the Huckabee campaign in California last night, and there could hardly have been more respectable representatives of the Republican Party and Republican values. If you are a Ron Paul supporter, and I have someone very close in my family who is a Ron Paul supporter, I understand your frustration with our tax burden, the government’s failure to protect our borders, and overseas military campaigns when our purposes are vague or our commitment to victory half-hearted. I could spend many pages explaining where I take strong exception to the political records and current positions of both Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, but it will save a lot of space for now if I observe that I know, most likely you know, and the candidates themselves know that neither is going to be the nominee of the Republican Party. If either Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul could win the nomination of his Party, he would be creamed in the general election by a mainstream media that would relentlessly portray either one as a right-wing fanatic.

Now, on to the real contest in the Republican Party where the race is down to two candidates: Governor Romney or Senator McCain. The mainstream media would like us to buy into the storyline that Senator McCain is the comeback kid with an overwhelming lead, and that he alone has a chance to beat the candidate of the Democrat Party, whether it be Senator Clinton or Senator Obama. They would also like us to believe that the Reagan coalition is dead, that conservatives are dispirited, that McCain is as conservative a candidate as we can hope to get, and that as Roberta McCain (Senator McCain’s mother) said in a C-Span interview, we’ll all have to hold our noses and accept him.

Gradually, the base of the Republican Party is coming to realize that Romney is the only sincere conservative in the race with a chance to win the nomination and the election. Everything depends on how gradual or how quickly this realization takes hold. Already, the California race is close, with Romney is leading 37-to-34 in the latest Zogby poll in California reported on 2/3/2008 (the Governor’s endorsement notwithstanding), and Romney is only slightly behind in Georgia, where it’s McCain 31, Romney 29, and Huckabee 28 according to Rasmussen on 2/3/2008. If this isn’t a sign of conservatives waking up, I don’t know what else it could be.

Governor Romney understands our economic challenges , he understands that we are engaged in a world-wide struggle against Islamic Jihadists, he is committed to securing our border and sending illegal aliens home to wait at the back of the line (by taking away their privileges and incentives to stay here). Governor Romney is socially conservative to the core (almost all the LDS folk I know are, though I haven’t a clue what to say about Harry Reid), and I don’t care how long it took the Governor to come around to a right-to-life position – it took many of us years to fully comprehend this issue and its ramifications. Governor Romney knows how to assemble a team of the most knowledgeable people to get the job done, and he will be looking for some fresh faces in the mix instead of all the same people who have failed to solve the big problems.

Senator McCain is conservative on a few issues (win the war in Iraq, put an end to wasteful earmarks), and off-the-reservation on many more such as amnesty for illegal aliens, stifling political free speech, opposing tax cuts, attacking big corporations, and swallowing the hysterical version of the global-warming story. He is mostly clueless and dangerous on the economy. He is hot-tempered, vindictive, and dismissive of all those who disagree with him. Senator McCain is unlikely to beat Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, despite what the early polls are telling you; the mainstream media is giving John McCain a free pass while he’s running against conservative Republicans; when he’s running against an icon of the Democrat Party, they will suddenly notice how very old and tired he looks and they will have very different things to say about his pseudo-conservative positions. More to come on the disaster that would follow a McCain victory.

A very smart long-time friend of mine just wrote:

I find it nearly impossible to believe that Romney has any chance at all. This saddens me but it is reality. He is being "high-lowed" by McCain and Huckabee. Both hate Romney and are working together to assure that he cannot win. McCain gets the liberal so-called Republicans and Huckabee siphons off enough conservatives to assure a Romney loss. I do not know if McCain has promised Huckabee anything (Vice President or a senior Cabinet position) or if Huckabee just hates Romney, but his refusal to pull out and his aggressive attacks on Romney are doing real damage. The conservative masses are not catching on to these two evil doers fast enough to allow victory. Sad but true -- there is not enough time for truth to win out.